Many Unhappy Returns
Investment strategist James Montier now works with famed fund manager Jeremy Grantham at GMO, but in a past life wrote a fabulous paper...
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20195 min read
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Robert Shiller
This is the second in a series of four posts dedicated to active management, focussing on some of the key figures involved in the study...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20193 min read
EM Investing Still Pays Dividends
I feel very fortunate to have had the opportunity to live and work abroad for a number of years. Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore were not...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20193 min read
Take a Stand Against Mediocrity
The investment profession is one I have often said that I both love and loath. I love the company or country analysis; and the fact that...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20195 min read
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Eugene Fama
According to Moody’s, total assets in passive funds in the US will overtake those in actively managed funds in 2021. In light of this...
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Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20193 min read
A Word in Your Ear
For such a simple word, risk is quite hard to define. It is generally agreed that it pertains to danger of some sort, but that is where...
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20195 min read
Edge, Paradox, Bravery and the Stock Market
I have written in the past about the Kelly Betting Criterion, named after the Bell Laboratory researcher John L. Kelly. In short, ‘the...
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Peter Elston
Apr 30, 20195 min read
Long-term Returns and the Dangers of Complacency
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Recently I was...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20194 min read
A Diversified Approach to Income Can Pay Dividends
Income continues to be the principal concern for many investors in the UK - both in the run-up to and throughout retirement. Reinvested...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20193 min read
Is 0% Better Than an Annuity?
Risks generally come in two forms, those that can be borne by the individual and those that should be pooled. Longevity risk and the risk...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20193 min read
Gold Is Not What You Think It Is
The term “gold bug” has been popularised in recent decades as a reference to ardent fans of gold investment. The almost imperceptible...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20194 min read
Making the Most of an Investment Edge
Whether in skill games like Poker or luck games like Blackjack, repeatable success requires tilting the odds in your favour, then betting...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20194 min read
What Poker, Blackjack and Coin Toss can Teach you About Investing
Whether in skill games like poker or luck games like blackjack, repeatable success requires tilting the odds in your favour, then betting...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20194 min read
The Myths and Misunderstandings Behind Active Share
The issue of closet tracker funds charging high fees for poor performance has been a recent gripe of the Financial Conduct Authority. It...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20193 min read
Advice for the Asset Allocator
I think I have one of the best jobs in the world: essentially, to predict the future – the future course of, for example, inflation and...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20194 min read
Review of 2018 Fund Performance
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. As it’s the...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20197 min read
2019 Investment Outlook
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. 2018 was looking...
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Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20183 min read
Lessons from Scandinavia
The fund industry is not like other industries. With most consumer products, you know what you are getting. Furthermore, if they break,...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20183 min read
Are you in Denial?
I occasionally like to ask people if they are in denial about something or other. If they say ‘no’, I smile. Then, when they see the...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20183 min read
Will an Algorithm Replace Me?
I was presenting at a multi-asset investing conference recently and during the Q&A was asked, “Will you be replaced by an ‘algo’?” My...
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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