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The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More


Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Peter Elston
Mar 8, 20235 min read
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Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
Peter Elston
Feb 10, 20235 min read
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Do Not Let Your Comfortable Retirement Slip Away
Now is the time for a truly bold asset allocation
Peter Elston
Jan 6, 20236 min read
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Doves In Hawk Clothing
When the time comes, will central banks prioritise employment or inflation?
Peter Elston
Dec 14, 20226 min read
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Vanguard Doubles Down
The passive fund behemoth refuses to consider possibility that inflation will remain high
Peter Elston
Dec 2, 20228 min read
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Inflation (Part 47)
Some thoughts on this most important of issues following participation in a Citywire debate
Peter Elston
Nov 25, 20225 min read
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Is Vanguard In Denial?
The manager of the huge passive balanced fund range is clearly conflicted
Peter Elston
Nov 4, 20226 min read
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Wealth Managers May Need A Complete Rethink
Persistent high inflation will make a mockery of balanced and risk rated funds
Peter Elston
Oct 27, 20225 min read
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Citywire: Wealth Managers May Need A Complete Rethink
My latest piece, published in Citywire, takes aim at balanced and risk-rated funds
Peter Elston
Oct 20, 20221 min read
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Risk Rated Funds Are Broken
We are now in an environment in which bonds are riskier than equities, spelling trouble for risk rated funds
Peter Elston
Oct 18, 20223 min read
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Carnage
If you enjoy reading this blog, please leave a star rating on WealthTender. Thank you! The ramifications of the big fall in Gilts will be...
Peter Elston
Sep 28, 20223 min read
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Making Waves About Bubbles
GMO's Jeremy Grantham has caused a stir with his latest missive
Peter Elston
Sep 7, 20226 min read
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Time To Step Up
Until recently, central banks had been seen as heroes for the best part of four decades
Peter Elston
Sep 1, 20226 min read
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Stability. Complacency. Mistake. Repeat.
Central banks were ill prepared for covid but then several decades of disinflation had made them and many others complacent
Peter Elston
Aug 30, 202210 min read
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OK, But What Do The Patterns Actually Mean?
Patterns in financial markets relate to human behaviour, the business cycle, and longer inflation cycles
Peter Elston
Aug 26, 20224 min read
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A Statistical Appraisal Of Bond And Equity Behaviour
Bonds and equities exhibit fundamentally different patterns
Peter Elston
Aug 22, 20226 min read
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Schrödinger's Thermostat
Can the latest US jobs and inflation data suggest that the economy is heating up and cooling down at the same time?
Peter Elston
Aug 12, 20223 min read
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Where Are We In The Cycle?
A reminder about what empirical research tells us about business cycle phases and asset class returns
Peter Elston
Aug 3, 20223 min read
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The US Is Not In Recession...Yet
The definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth is flawed
Peter Elston
Jul 29, 20222 min read
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Prediction Machines
It's easy to make predictions but making them useful is another thing all together
Peter Elston
Jul 27, 20226 min read
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets


Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way


Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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