Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
- Feb 10
- 5 min
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
1170
Peter Elston
- Jan 6
- 6 min
Do Not Let Your Comfortable Retirement Slip Away
Now is the time for a truly bold asset allocation
1652
Peter Elston
- Dec 14, 2022
- 6 min
Doves In Hawk Clothing
When the time comes, will central banks prioritise employment or inflation?
1270
Peter Elston
- Dec 2, 2022
- 8 min
Vanguard Doubles Down
The passive fund behemoth refuses to consider possibility that inflation will remain high
971
Peter Elston
- Nov 25, 2022
- 5 min
Inflation (Part 47)
Some thoughts on this most important of issues following participation in a Citywire debate
640
Peter Elston
- Nov 4, 2022
- 6 min
Is Vanguard In Denial?
The manager of the huge passive balanced fund range is clearly conflicted
2972
Peter Elston
- Oct 27, 2022
- 5 min
Wealth Managers May Need A Complete Rethink
Persistent high inflation will make a mockery of balanced and risk rated funds
770
Peter Elston
- Oct 20, 2022
- 1 min
Citywire: Wealth Managers May Need A Complete Rethink
My latest piece, published in Citywire, takes aim at balanced and risk-rated funds
470
Peter Elston
- Oct 18, 2022
- 3 min
Risk Rated Funds Are Broken
We are now in an environment in which bonds are riskier than equities, spelling trouble for risk rated funds
510
Peter Elston
- Sep 28, 2022
- 3 min
Carnage
If you enjoy reading this blog, please leave a star rating on WealthTender. Thank you! The ramifications of the big fall in Gilts will be...
681
Peter Elston
- Sep 7, 2022
- 6 min
Making Waves About Bubbles
GMO's Jeremy Grantham has caused a stir with his latest missive
650
Peter Elston
- Sep 1, 2022
- 6 min
Time To Step Up
Until recently, central banks had been seen as heroes for the best part of four decades
290
Peter Elston
- Aug 30, 2022
- 10 min
Stability. Complacency. Mistake. Repeat.
Central banks were ill prepared for covid but then several decades of disinflation had made them and many others complacent
692
Peter Elston
- Aug 26, 2022
- 4 min
OK, But What Do The Patterns Actually Mean?
Patterns in financial markets relate to human behaviour, the business cycle, and longer inflation cycles
260
Peter Elston
- Aug 22, 2022
- 6 min
A Statistical Appraisal Of Bond And Equity Behaviour
Bonds and equities exhibit fundamentally different patterns
430
Peter Elston
- Aug 12, 2022
- 3 min
Schrödinger's Thermostat
Can the latest US jobs and inflation data suggest that the economy is heating up and cooling down at the same time?
310
Peter Elston
- Aug 3, 2022
- 3 min
Where Are We In The Cycle?
A reminder about what empirical research tells us about business cycle phases and asset class returns
660
Peter Elston
- Jul 29, 2022
- 2 min
The US Is Not In Recession...Yet
The definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth is flawed
310
Peter Elston
- Jul 27, 2022
- 6 min
Prediction Machines
It's easy to make predictions but making them useful is another thing all together
440
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