Where Are We In The Cycle?
A reminder about what empirical research tells us about business cycle phases and asset class returns
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Jul 27, 20226 min read
Prediction Machines
It's easy to make predictions but making them useful is another thing all together
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Peter Elston
Jul 25, 20227 min read
Is Gold Still Gold?
An appraisal of the fundamental reasons for buying gold
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Peter Elston
Jul 22, 20225 min read
Is Gold Still Precious?
The outlook for gold in the context of its long-term price trend
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Peter Elston
Jul 14, 20224 min read
Blurred Lines or No Lines?
Retail investors cannot be adequately protected until the fundamental similarity between investing and gambling is recognised
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Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20224 min read
Existential Crisis
Is the sustainable investing industry sustainable?
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Peter Elston
Jun 22, 20224 min read
Valuing the Essential Nature of Stuff
There is a remarkably simple test for whether something has intrinsic value
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Peter Elston
May 25, 20222 min read
It's Time to Start Thinking in Real Terms
There are two effects of high inflation. The first is one that we have in recent weeks and months become brutally aware of, namely its...
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Peter Elston
May 24, 20223 min read
How Much Of The High Inflation From 1965 To 1981 Was Due To The Two Oil Shocks?
There is no correct answer to this question - other than that before 1973, none of it! - as it is impossible to separate out effects of...
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Peter Elston
Apr 30, 20224 min read
Tools of the Trade
In this post I set out a classification scheme for publicly available investment funds. It is hoped this can provide those readers who ...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20224 min read
Divine Messages?
I remember with amusement a presentation some years ago by a technical analyst, a so-called chartist.
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20223 min read
The Mother of All Themes
Understanding the basic science behind man-made climate change can give investors an edge. However, for the non-expert.
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20223 min read
Growing Pains
I remember feeling extremely honoured when I was invited four years ago to write this column. It seemed to me to be a great opportunity.
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Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20214 min read
No Such Thing as a Free Lunch
In my Last Word column in May this year I wrote about investment fund blow-ups, with a focus on the debacle of Allianz’s Structured Alpha...
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Peter Elston
Sep 30, 20213 min read
When the Fun Stops...
How can young people be helped to reach this epiphany sooner?
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20214 min read
Heavy Weather
In November, the UK will host the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26). Considering this, and the recent extreme weather
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20214 min read
Boom and Bust
Speculative bubbles – famous examples of which are tulips in the 17th century, the South Sea Company in the 18th, British railways in the...
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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