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The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More


How The Lake District Was Formed...In Three Minutes
For those interested in a quick summary of 500 million years of geological history of The Lakes
Peter Elston
Sep 15, 20226 min read
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Making Waves About Bubbles
GMO's Jeremy Grantham has caused a stir with his latest missive
Peter Elston
Sep 7, 20226 min read
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Extreme Hubris
Blue Whale's Steven Yiu may come to regret his decision to call publicly for 'most active managers to quit'
Peter Elston
Sep 2, 20223 min read
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Time To Step Up
Until recently, central banks had been seen as heroes for the best part of four decades
Peter Elston
Sep 1, 20226 min read
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Stability. Complacency. Mistake. Repeat.
Central banks were ill prepared for covid but then several decades of disinflation had made them and many others complacent
Peter Elston
Aug 30, 202210 min read
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OK, But What Do The Patterns Actually Mean?
Patterns in financial markets relate to human behaviour, the business cycle, and longer inflation cycles
Peter Elston
Aug 26, 20224 min read
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Randomness And The Galton Board
For those who know what the normal/Gaussian distribution looks like but are not quite sure what it is
Peter Elston
Aug 25, 20224 min read
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What The *&%$ Is Schrödinger's Cat All About?
It may be possible to both understand and not understand Schrödinger's Cat at the same time
Peter Elston
Aug 24, 20229 min read
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A Statistical Appraisal Of Bond And Equity Behaviour
Bonds and equities exhibit fundamentally different patterns
Peter Elston
Aug 22, 20226 min read
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Schrödinger's Thermostat
Can the latest US jobs and inflation data suggest that the economy is heating up and cooling down at the same time?
Peter Elston
Aug 12, 20223 min read
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It's About Jobs, Stupid!
Will tighter monetary policy in the US induce a gentle easing in labour market pressures or something unpleasant?
Peter Elston
Aug 8, 202213 min read
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Where Are We In The Cycle?
A reminder about what empirical research tells us about business cycle phases and asset class returns
Peter Elston
Aug 3, 20223 min read
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Western Consumer Spending Is Looking Vulnerable
Consumer sentiment and confidence indicators in the US, Eurozone, and UK point to grim days ahead
Peter Elston
Aug 1, 20223 min read
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The US Is Not In Recession...Yet
The definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth is flawed
Peter Elston
Jul 29, 20222 min read
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Prediction Machines
It's easy to make predictions but making them useful is another thing all together
Peter Elston
Jul 27, 20226 min read
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Is Gold Still Gold?
An appraisal of the fundamental reasons for buying gold
Peter Elston
Jul 25, 20227 min read
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Is Gold Still Precious?
The outlook for gold in the context of its long-term price trend
Peter Elston
Jul 22, 20225 min read
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The Age of Scarcity
The developed world has had it good for too long
Peter Elston
Jul 19, 20223 min read
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Blurred Lines or No Lines?
Retail investors cannot be adequately protected until the fundamental similarity between investing and gambling is recognised
Peter Elston
Jul 14, 20224 min read
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Stuck
Why should the QE of the last 15 years be causing inflation only now?
Peter Elston
Jul 13, 20224 min read
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets


Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way


Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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