The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More

Jun 30, 20172 min read

Preparing for the Next Downturn

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. The whole point...

Jun 30, 20174 min read

Our Tactical Asset Allocation Framework

In light of my views on the next global downturn as set out in an earlier post, I thought it would also be worth touching on the...

Jun 30, 20172 min read

Complexity Versus Simplicity

I am an advocate of the principle of ‘keeping it simple’. The three funds that my team at Seneca and I manage are all multi-asset,...

May 31, 20175 min read

Beware Dividend Concentration Among UK Large Caps

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Much has been...

May 31, 20173 min read

Is a Computer Going to Steal my Job as a Fund Manager?

Question: what is significant about the dates February 1996, October 2015 and January 2017? Answer: these were the dates on which, for...

Statistics and Science

Mar 31, 20176 min read

Value Investing, Whatever the Fashion

This article is about the new investment process that was introduced while I was chief investment officer at Seneca Investment Managers,...

Mar 1, 20173 min read

Fund Objectives and the Search for Harmony

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. We think that...

Mar 1, 20176 min read

Why we are Focusing on Good Value UK Mid-Caps

I must warn readers upfront that we at Seneca are value investors, and are thus naturally sceptical about growth investing in its...

Mar 1, 20172 min read

Preparing for the Impending End of the Bond Bull Market

I know I bang on about this, but value investing is about so much more than buying low price-to-earnings or low price-to-book stocks....

Mar 1, 20175 min read

The Bridge to your Comfortable Retirement

“If you’re going to burn a bridge, make sure you’ve crossed it first.” Whoever said that might well have been referring to the bridge...

Feb 1, 20171 min read

2017 Investment Outlook

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. My job is to...

Feb 1, 20175 min read

Current Portfolio Positioning Versus a Year Ago

Our funds’ tactical asset allocation positioning is very close to where it was this time last year, which means our views on the various...

Jan 1, 20171 min read

A Closer Look at the Relationship Between Return and Volatility

It is generally agreed and understood that to enjoy higher returns over the longer term one must accept higher levels of volatility in...

Jan 1, 20174 min read

A Review of my 2016 Investment Outlook

This time last year I wrote, “We believe on balance that the world will continue to grow in 2016, that equity market valuations by and...

Jan 1, 20172 min read

Tactical Asset Allocation and the Business Cycle

I recently came across a paper written in 2008 by Robeco’s Pim van Vliet and David Blitz entitled Dynamic Strategic Asset Allocation:...

Jan 1, 20174 min read

Multi-Asset Outlook

Equities As with emerging market debt and high yield, we are generally at that point in the cycle when equities can continue to make...

Dec 1, 20163 min read

Why Value Investors Don’t Have to Restrict Themselves to Cheap Stocks

I’m thinking about launching a smart beta ETF called the “Smart Alpha Smart Beta ETF”. It would invest only in shares that go up. At the...

Dec 1, 20164 min read

Fund Performance Review

The table below sets out our fund performance as well as that of comparators during periods ending 7 December. In summary, we think...

Dec 1, 20163 min read

Citywire Investment Committee No.2

As I write this Donald Trump has just been declared president and I congratulate him on playing a blinder of a hand. Let’s hope he can...