Gold is No Longer for Fools
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The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
As many will know from bitter experience, a crisis often has two stages. The first is the crisis itself, whether a natural disaster that...
Peter Elston
- Apr 1, 2020
- 3 min
The Price of Safety
The University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risks conducts research in three areas: risks associated with...
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Peter Elston
- Dec 1, 2019
- 3 min
The Liquid Illiquid Solution
There is little doubt that low interest rates have been causing savers and investors difficulties in recent years. In decades past, not...
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Peter Elston
- Nov 1, 2019
- 3 min
The Indiscriminate Inflow Threat
Michael Burry, the doctor-turned-hedge fund manager who foresaw the bursting of both the tech and subprime bubbles, has just revealed...
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Peter Elston
- Nov 1, 2019
- 4 min
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Corporate Governance
This post is the final of four in a mini-series on the subject of active management and the predictability of markets. The first three...
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Peter Elston
- Oct 1, 2019
- 5 min
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Didier Sornette
This is the third in a series of four posts dedicated to the subject of financial market predictability. In this month’s letter, I look...
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Peter Elston
- Sep 1, 2019
- 5 min
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Robert Shiller
This is the second in a series of four posts dedicated to active management, focussing on some of the key figures involved in the study...
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Peter Elston
- Sep 1, 2019
- 3 min
EM Investing Still Pays Dividends
I feel very fortunate to have had the opportunity to live and work abroad for a number of years. Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore were not...
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Peter Elston
- Aug 1, 2019
- 5 min
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Eugene Fama
According to Moody’s, total assets in passive funds in the US will overtake those in actively managed funds in 2021. In light of this...
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Peter Elston
- Jul 1, 2019
- 3 min
A Word in Your Ear
For such a simple word, risk is quite hard to define. It is generally agreed that it pertains to danger of some sort, but that is where...
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Peter Elston
- Jun 1, 2019
- 3 min
Why I'm Most Negative on US
The last two equity bear markets - in 2001/2 and 2008/9 - saw rolling three year returns from global equities at their trough hit -45 and...
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Peter Elston
- May 1, 2019
- 3 min
This Time it is Different, Again
A lot of attention in the media recently has been devoted to the inversion of the yield curve in the US in late March. There is one main...
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Peter Elston
- Apr 1, 2019
- 4 min
A Diversified Approach to Income Can Pay Dividends
Income continues to be the principal concern for many investors in the UK - both in the run-up to and throughout retirement. Reinvested...
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Peter Elston
- Mar 1, 2019
- 3 min
Gold Is Not What You Think It Is
The term “gold bug” has been popularised in recent decades as a reference to ardent fans of gold investment. The almost imperceptible...
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Peter Elston
- Feb 1, 2019
- 5 min
Was 2018 the Start of the Next Bear Market?
2018 was looking all fine and dandy up until the beginning of October. Equity markets, though having been driven by a small number of...
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Peter Elston
- Jan 1, 2019
- 7 min
2019 Investment Outlook
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. 2018 was looking...
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Peter Elston
- Nov 1, 2018
- 5 min
Review and Outlook
October was clearly a bad month for equity markets around the world, with the MSCI AC World index falling 6.9% in local currency terms....
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Peter Elston
- Oct 1, 2018
- 3 min
Reducing Equity Targets
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Last year we...
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Peter Elston
- Sep 1, 2018
- 4 min
Our Valuation Methodology Applied to US Equities
In June, we moved to a zero weight in US equities across all our funds. This is obviously a very high conviction position given that the...
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Peter Elston
- Aug 1, 2018
- 4 min
Review and Outlook
Equity markets were generally strong in July, as investors appeared to shrug off fears of a global trade war. US and Eurozone equities...
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