Gold is No Longer for Fools
As many will know from bitter experience, a crisis often has two stages. The first is the crisis itself, whether a natural disaster that...
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20203 min read
The Price of Safety
The University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risks conducts research in three areas: risks associated with...
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Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20193 min read
The Liquid Illiquid Solution
There is little doubt that low interest rates have been causing savers and investors difficulties in recent years. In decades past, not...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20193 min read
The Indiscriminate Inflow Threat
Michael Burry, the doctor-turned-hedge fund manager who foresaw the bursting of both the tech and subprime bubbles, has just revealed...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20194 min read
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Corporate Governance
This post is the final of four in a mini-series on the subject of active management and the predictability of markets. The first three...
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Peter Elston
Sep 30, 20195 min read
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Didier Sornette
This is the third in a series of four posts dedicated to the subject of financial market predictability. In this month’s letter, I look...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20195 min read
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Robert Shiller
This is the second in a series of four posts dedicated to active management, focussing on some of the key figures involved in the study...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20193 min read
EM Investing Still Pays Dividends
I feel very fortunate to have had the opportunity to live and work abroad for a number of years. Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore were not...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20195 min read
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Eugene Fama
According to Moody’s, total assets in passive funds in the US will overtake those in actively managed funds in 2021. In light of this...
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Peter Elston
Jun 30, 20193 min read
A Word in Your Ear
For such a simple word, risk is quite hard to define. It is generally agreed that it pertains to danger of some sort, but that is where...
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20193 min read
Why I'm Most Negative on US
The last two equity bear markets - in 2001/2 and 2008/9 - saw rolling three year returns from global equities at their trough hit -45 and...
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Peter Elston
Apr 30, 20193 min read
This Time it is Different, Again
A lot of attention in the media recently has been devoted to the inversion of the yield curve in the US in late March. There is one main...
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Peter Elston
Mar 31, 20194 min read
A Diversified Approach to Income Can Pay Dividends
Income continues to be the principal concern for many investors in the UK - both in the run-up to and throughout retirement. Reinvested...
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Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20193 min read
Gold Is Not What You Think It Is
The term “gold bug” has been popularised in recent decades as a reference to ardent fans of gold investment. The almost imperceptible...
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Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20195 min read
Was 2018 the Start of the Next Bear Market?
2018 was looking all fine and dandy up until the beginning of October. Equity markets, though having been driven by a small number of...
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Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20197 min read
2019 Investment Outlook
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. 2018 was looking...
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Peter Elston
Nov 1, 20185 min read
Review and Outlook
October was clearly a bad month for equity markets around the world, with the MSCI AC World index falling 6.9% in local currency terms....
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Peter Elston
Sep 30, 20183 min read
Reducing Equity Targets
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Last year we...
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Peter Elston
Aug 31, 20184 min read
Our Valuation Methodology Applied to US Equities
In June, we moved to a zero weight in US equities across all our funds. This is obviously a very high conviction position given that the...
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Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20184 min read
Review and Outlook
Equity markets were generally strong in July, as investors appeared to shrug off fears of a global trade war. US and Eurozone equities...
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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