Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Corporate Governance
This post is the final of four in a mini-series on the subject of active management and the predictability of markets. The first three...
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
- Oct 1, 2019
- 5 min
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Didier Sornette
This is the third in a series of four posts dedicated to the subject of financial market predictability. In this month’s letter, I look...
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Peter Elston
- Sep 1, 2019
- 5 min
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Robert Shiller
This is the second in a series of four posts dedicated to active management, focussing on some of the key figures involved in the study...
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Peter Elston
- Aug 1, 2019
- 5 min
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Eugene Fama
According to Moody’s, total assets in passive funds in the US will overtake those in actively managed funds in 2021. In light of this...
30
Peter Elston
- Jul 1, 2019
- 3 min
A Confusing Time for Economists
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. The very rapid...
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Peter Elston
- Jun 1, 2019
- 5 min
Edge, Paradox, Bravery and the Stock Market
I have written in the past about the Kelly Betting Criterion, named after the Bell Laboratory researcher John L. Kelly. In short, ‘the...
60
Peter Elston
- May 1, 2019
- 5 min
Long-term Returns and the Dangers of Complacency
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Recently I was...
60
Peter Elston
- Mar 1, 2019
- 3 min
Gold Is Not What You Think It Is
The term “gold bug” has been popularised in recent decades as a reference to ardent fans of gold investment. The almost imperceptible...
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Peter Elston
- Mar 1, 2019
- 4 min
Making the Most of an Investment Edge
Whether in skill games like Poker or luck games like Blackjack, repeatable success requires tilting the odds in your favour, then betting...
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Peter Elston
- Feb 1, 2019
- 8 min
Is a Recession Imminent?
This month, I write about our funds’ current (tactical) asset allocation positioning in the context of my macro outlook and market views....
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Peter Elston
- Sep 1, 2018
- 4 min
Our Valuation Methodology Applied to US Equities
In June, we moved to a zero weight in US equities across all our funds. This is obviously a very high conviction position given that the...
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Peter Elston
- Aug 1, 2018
- 5 min
Am I Right to Worry About Higher Inflation?
Am I right to worry about higher inflation? Followers of our funds and my writing will know that we have been reducing risk in...
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Peter Elston
- Jul 1, 2018
- 4 min
Tactical Asset Allocation in the Current Phase of the Business Cycle
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Our analysis...
30
Peter Elston
- Jun 1, 2018
- 4 min
Cryptocurrencies: the Ultimate Bubble
Remember cryptocurrencies? Actually, that is a little unfair as they are still popular and thus still have much further to fall. Bitcoin...
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Peter Elston
- May 1, 2018
- 5 min
Secular Stagnation? Or the Optimistic View?
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Since the Great...
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Peter Elston
- Apr 1, 2018
- 4 min
A Timely Reminder
As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...
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Peter Elston
- Mar 1, 2018
- 5 min
Behave Yourself!
I’ve been writing quarterly articles for Trustnet over the last couple of years. The first four were on the subject of ‘investment risk’,...
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Peter Elston
- Jan 1, 2018
- 5 min
A Review of 2017 and Outlook for 2018
All three of our funds have been blowing passive multi-asset funds out of the water based on volatility adjusted returns for five years...
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Peter Elston
- Dec 1, 2017
- 5 min
A New, Simple, Comprehensive Measure of Fund ‘Active-ness’
In the spirit of Christmas, I present in this final letter of the year some truly psychedelic charts! "I guess he’d never heard of Warren...
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Peter Elston
- Nov 1, 2017
- 4 min
Keeping it Simple – How to Add Value Effectively Through Tactical Asset Allocation
Take a look at the equity weight over time of some multi-asset funds and you’d have thought that the manager was at best flipping coins...
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