Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Corporate Governance
This post is the final of four in a mini-series on the subject of active management and the predictability of markets. The first three...
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
- Sep 30, 2019
- 5 min
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Didier Sornette
This is the third in a series of four posts dedicated to the subject of financial market predictability. In this month’s letter, I look...
50
Peter Elston
- Aug 31, 2019
- 5 min
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Robert Shiller
This is the second in a series of four posts dedicated to active management, focussing on some of the key figures involved in the study...
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Peter Elston
- Jul 31, 2019
- 5 min
Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Eugene Fama
According to Moody’s, total assets in passive funds in the US will overtake those in actively managed funds in 2021. In light of this...
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Peter Elston
- Jun 30, 2019
- 3 min
A Confusing Time for Economists
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. The very rapid...
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Peter Elston
- May 31, 2019
- 5 min
Edge, Paradox, Bravery and the Stock Market
I have written in the past about the Kelly Betting Criterion, named after the Bell Laboratory researcher John L. Kelly. In short, ‘the...
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Peter Elston
- Apr 30, 2019
- 5 min
Long-term Returns and the Dangers of Complacency
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Recently I was...
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Peter Elston
- Mar 1, 2019
- 3 min
Gold Is Not What You Think It Is
The term “gold bug” has been popularised in recent decades as a reference to ardent fans of gold investment. The almost imperceptible...
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Peter Elston
- Mar 1, 2019
- 4 min
Making the Most of an Investment Edge
Whether in skill games like Poker or luck games like Blackjack, repeatable success requires tilting the odds in your favour, then betting...
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Peter Elston
- Feb 1, 2019
- 8 min
Is a Recession Imminent?
This month, I write about our funds’ current (tactical) asset allocation positioning in the context of my macro outlook and market views....
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Peter Elston
- Aug 31, 2018
- 4 min
Our Valuation Methodology Applied to US Equities
In June, we moved to a zero weight in US equities across all our funds. This is obviously a very high conviction position given that the...
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Peter Elston
- Jul 31, 2018
- 5 min
Am I Right to Worry About Higher Inflation?
Am I right to worry about higher inflation? Followers of our funds and my writing will know that we have been reducing risk in...
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Peter Elston
- Jun 30, 2018
- 4 min
Tactical Asset Allocation in the Current Phase of the Business Cycle
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Our analysis...
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Peter Elston
- May 31, 2018
- 4 min
Cryptocurrencies: the Ultimate Bubble
Remember cryptocurrencies? Actually, that is a little unfair as they are still popular and thus still have much further to fall. Bitcoin...
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Peter Elston
- Apr 30, 2018
- 5 min
Secular Stagnation? Or the Optimistic View?
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Since the Great...
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Peter Elston
- Mar 31, 2018
- 4 min
A Timely Reminder
As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...
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Peter Elston
- Mar 1, 2018
- 5 min
Behave Yourself!
I’ve been writing quarterly articles for Trustnet over the last couple of years. The first four were on the subject of ‘investment risk’,...
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Peter Elston
- Jan 1, 2018
- 5 min
A Review of 2017 and Outlook for 2018
All three of our funds have been blowing passive multi-asset funds out of the water based on volatility adjusted returns for five years...
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Peter Elston
- Dec 1, 2017
- 5 min
A New, Simple, Comprehensive Measure of Fund ‘Active-ness’
In the spirit of Christmas, I present in this final letter of the year some truly psychedelic charts! "I guess he’d never heard of Warren...
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Peter Elston
- Nov 1, 2017
- 4 min
Keeping it Simple – How to Add Value Effectively Through Tactical Asset Allocation
Take a look at the equity weight over time of some multi-asset funds and you’d have thought that the manager was at best flipping coins...
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