Posts in this category are about financial markets such as bonds, equities, commodities, alternatives etc.
8 Mar 2023
Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
14 Dec 2022
Doves In Hawk Clothing
When the time comes, will central banks prioritise employment or inflation?
4 Nov 2022
Is Vanguard In Denial?
The manager of the huge passive balanced fund range is clearly conflicted
18 Oct 2022
Risk Rated Funds Are Broken
We are now in an environment in which bonds are riskier than equities, spelling trouble for risk rated funds
1 Sept 2022
Time To Step Up
Until recently, central banks had been seen as heroes for the best part of four decades
22 Aug 2022
A Statistical Appraisal Of Bond And Equity Behaviour
Bonds and equities exhibit fundamentally different patterns
29 Jul 2022
The US Is Not In Recession...Yet
The definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth is flawed
22 Jul 2022
Is Gold Still Precious?
The outlook for gold in the context of its long-term price trend
10 Feb 2023
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
2 Dec 2022
Vanguard Doubles Down
The passive fund behemoth refuses to consider possibility that inflation will remain high
27 Oct 2022
Wealth Managers May Need A Complete Rethink
Persistent high inflation will make a mockery of balanced and risk rated funds
28 Sept 2022
If you enjoy reading this blog, please leave a star rating on WealthTender. Thank you! The ramifications of the big fall in Gilts will be...
30 Aug 2022
Stability. Complacency. Mistake. Repeat.
Central banks were ill prepared for covid but then several decades of disinflation had made them and many others complacent
12 Aug 2022
Can the latest US jobs and inflation data suggest that the economy is heating up and cooling down at the same time?
27 Jul 2022
It's easy to make predictions but making them useful is another thing all together
14 Jul 2022
Blurred Lines or No Lines?
Retail investors cannot be adequately protected until the fundamental similarity between investing and gambling is recognised
6 Jan 2023
Do Not Let Your Comfortable Retirement Slip Away
Now is the time for a truly bold asset allocation
25 Nov 2022
Inflation (Part 47)
Some thoughts on this most important of issues following participation in a Citywire debate
20 Oct 2022
Citywire: Wealth Managers May Need A Complete Rethink
My latest piece, published in Citywire, takes aim at balanced and risk-rated funds
7 Sept 2022
Making Waves About Bubbles
GMO's Jeremy Grantham has caused a stir with his latest missive
26 Aug 2022
OK, But What Do The Patterns Actually Mean?
Patterns in financial markets relate to human behaviour, the business cycle, and longer inflation cycles
3 Aug 2022
Where Are We In The Cycle?
A reminder about what empirical research tells us about business cycle phases and asset class returns
25 Jul 2022
Is Gold Still Gold?
An appraisal of the fundamental reasons for buying gold
13 Jul 2022
Why should the QE of the last 15 years be causing inflation only now?