Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Dec 14, 20226 min read
Doves In Hawk Clothing
When the time comes, will central banks prioritise employment or inflation?
1480
Peter Elston
Sep 1, 20226 min read
Time To Step Up
Until recently, central banks had been seen as heroes for the best part of four decades
310
Peter Elston
Aug 30, 202210 min read
Stability. Complacency. Mistake. Repeat.
Central banks were ill prepared for covid but then several decades of disinflation had made them and many others complacent
902
Peter Elston
Aug 12, 20223 min read
Schrödinger's Thermostat
Can the latest US jobs and inflation data suggest that the economy is heating up and cooling down at the same time?
320
Peter Elston
Aug 8, 202213 min read
It's About Jobs, Stupid!
Will tighter monetary policy in the US induce a gentle easing in labour market pressures or something unpleasant?
730
Peter Elston
Aug 3, 20223 min read
Where Are We In The Cycle?
A reminder about what empirical research tells us about business cycle phases and asset class returns
850
Peter Elston
Jul 29, 20222 min read
The US Is Not In Recession...Yet
The definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth is flawed
310
Peter Elston
Jul 27, 20226 min read
Prediction Machines
It's easy to make predictions but making them useful is another thing all together
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Peter Elston
Jul 13, 20224 min read
Stuck
Why should the QE of the last 15 years be causing inflation only now?
460
Peter Elston
Jul 11, 20225 min read
Even The Germans Went Quiet
Perhaps quantitative easing was inflationary after all
570
Peter Elston
Jul 5, 20226 min read
Strong Words, Mate
How credible is the message from central banks that they can and will bring down inflation?
480
Peter Elston
Jul 1, 20223 min read
Keeping Schtum
If nobody mentions excessive fiscal spending, did it ever happen?
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Peter Elston
Jun 17, 20223 min read
The Ultimate Bearish Scenario?
The combination of central bank weakness and fiscal policy error is a toxic one
730
Peter Elston
Jun 6, 20225 min read
May The Two Forces Be With You
A look at the last hundred years of US fiscal and monetary policy
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Peter Elston
Jun 1, 20224 min read
Winter of '69
Winter of '69
I see little sign of such honesty and humility today which is concerning to say the least.
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Peter Elston
May 29, 20224 min read
Grin And Bear It
Signs point to the start of a bond bear market Since their peak on 4 August 2020, long duration Treasuries are down 40% in real terms....
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Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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