Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Jan 6, 20236 min read
Do Not Let Your Comfortable Retirement Slip Away
Now is the time for a truly bold asset allocation
2233
Peter Elston
Dec 14, 20226 min read
Doves In Hawk Clothing
When the time comes, will central banks prioritise employment or inflation?
1480
Peter Elston
Nov 16, 20223 min read
Naughty Auntie
Irresponsible reporting about real wage growth by the BBC encourages public sector workers to strike
1010
Peter Elston
Aug 30, 202210 min read
Stability. Complacency. Mistake. Repeat.
Central banks were ill prepared for covid but then several decades of disinflation had made them and many others complacent
902
Peter Elston
Aug 26, 20224 min read
OK, But What Do The Patterns Actually Mean?
Patterns in financial markets relate to human behaviour, the business cycle, and longer inflation cycles
320
Peter Elston
Aug 12, 20223 min read
Schrödinger's Thermostat
Can the latest US jobs and inflation data suggest that the economy is heating up and cooling down at the same time?
320
Peter Elston
Aug 8, 202213 min read
It's About Jobs, Stupid!
Will tighter monetary policy in the US induce a gentle easing in labour market pressures or something unpleasant?
730
Peter Elston
Jul 25, 20227 min read
Is Gold Still Gold?
An appraisal of the fundamental reasons for buying gold
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Peter Elston
Jul 22, 20225 min read
Is Gold Still Precious?
The outlook for gold in the context of its long-term price trend
760
Peter Elston
Jul 19, 20223 min read
The Age of Scarcity
The developed world has had it good for too long
370
Peter Elston
Jul 5, 20226 min read
Strong Words, Mate
How credible is the message from central banks that they can and will bring down inflation?
480
Peter Elston
Jul 1, 20223 min read
Keeping Schtum
If nobody mentions excessive fiscal spending, did it ever happen?
440
Peter Elston
Jun 17, 20223 min read
The Ultimate Bearish Scenario?
The combination of central bank weakness and fiscal policy error is a toxic one
730
Peter Elston
Jun 13, 20222 min read
Damn It, Janet
US treasury secretary Janet Yellen is losing her credibility
600
Peter Elston
Jun 12, 20222 min read
The Next Mis-selling Scandal
Lazy advisers who put clients into bonds should face the music in court
1470
Peter Elston
Jun 2, 20222 min read
Mea Culpa? Hardly...
It is important that governments are honest about what is causing inflation
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Peter Elston
Jun 1, 20224 min read
Winter of '69
Winter of '69
I see little sign of such honesty and humility today which is concerning to say the least.
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Peter Elston
May 31, 20222 min read
How bad will the UK economy get?
There is little consensus currently about how weak the UK economy will get in the next year or two as a result of the prevailing high...
750
Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
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