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An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets

Persistent high inflation will make a mockery of balanced and risk rated funds

GMO's Jeremy Grantham has caused a stir with his latest missive

A reminder about what empirical research tells us about business cycle phases and asset class returns

It's not about cycles and trends, but pattern and randomness

At the time of writing, global equities are up around 17% in US dollars year to date. Sterling weakness has added a further 3 percentage...

In a recent op-ed, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath noted that: “For the first time, in 60% of the global economy – including 97% of...

For some time now I have been expecting the current global business cycle to end in 2020, with the caveat that it was almost as likely to...

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. The very rapid...

The last two equity bear markets - in 2001/2 and 2008/9 - saw rolling three year returns from global equities at their trough hit -45 and...

This month, I write about our funds’ current (tactical) asset allocation positioning in the context of my macro outlook and market views....

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. 2018 was looking...

October was clearly a bad month for equity markets around the world, with the MSCI AC World index falling 6.9% in local currency terms....

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Last year we...

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Our analysis...

As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...

I’ve been writing quarterly articles for Trustnet over the last couple of years. The first four were on the subject of ‘investment risk’,...

My framework for tactical asset allocation is based on business cycle analysis and the documented findings that asset classes tend to...

My first piece about asset allocation set out my framework for both strategic asset allocation and tactical asset allocation, as well as...