Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
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INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
- Oct 27, 2022
- 5 min
Wealth Managers May Need A Complete Rethink
Persistent high inflation will make a mockery of balanced and risk rated funds
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Peter Elston
- Sep 7, 2022
- 6 min
Making Waves About Bubbles
GMO's Jeremy Grantham has caused a stir with his latest missive
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Peter Elston
- Aug 3, 2022
- 3 min
Where Are We In The Cycle?
A reminder about what empirical research tells us about business cycle phases and asset class returns
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Peter Elston
- Jun 21, 2022
- 4 min
Do Trends Exist?
It's not about cycles and trends, but pattern and randomness
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Peter Elston
- Jan 1, 2022
- 4 min
Clear and Present Danger
At the time of writing, global equities are up around 17% in US dollars year to date. Sterling weakness has added a further 3 percentage...
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Peter Elston
- Jan 1, 2021
- 3 min
Lessons From the Chimps
In a recent op-ed, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath noted that: “For the first time, in 60% of the global economy – including 97% of...
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Peter Elston
- Mar 1, 2020
- 3 min
Stand Firm and Be Strong
For some time now I have been expecting the current global business cycle to end in 2020, with the caveat that it was almost as likely to...
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Peter Elston
- Jul 1, 2019
- 3 min
A Confusing Time for Economists
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. The very rapid...
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Peter Elston
- Jun 1, 2019
- 3 min
Why I'm Most Negative on US
The last two equity bear markets - in 2001/2 and 2008/9 - saw rolling three year returns from global equities at their trough hit -45 and...
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Peter Elston
- Feb 1, 2019
- 8 min
Is a Recession Imminent?
This month, I write about our funds’ current (tactical) asset allocation positioning in the context of my macro outlook and market views....
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Peter Elston
- Jan 1, 2019
- 7 min
2019 Investment Outlook
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. 2018 was looking...
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Peter Elston
- Nov 1, 2018
- 5 min
Review and Outlook
October was clearly a bad month for equity markets around the world, with the MSCI AC World index falling 6.9% in local currency terms....
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Peter Elston
- Oct 1, 2018
- 3 min
Reducing Equity Targets
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Last year we...
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Peter Elston
- Jul 1, 2018
- 4 min
Tactical Asset Allocation in the Current Phase of the Business Cycle
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Our analysis...
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Peter Elston
- Apr 1, 2018
- 4 min
A Timely Reminder
As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...
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Peter Elston
- Mar 1, 2018
- 5 min
Behave Yourself!
I’ve been writing quarterly articles for Trustnet over the last couple of years. The first four were on the subject of ‘investment risk’,...
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Peter Elston
- Feb 1, 2018
- 4 min
My Framework for Tactical Asset Allocation
My framework for tactical asset allocation is based on business cycle analysis and the documented findings that asset classes tend to...
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Peter Elston
- Feb 1, 2018
- 3 min
Tactical Asset Allocation Framework
My first piece about asset allocation set out my framework for both strategic asset allocation and tactical asset allocation, as well as...
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Peter Elston
- Jan 1, 2018
- 5 min
A Review of 2017 and Outlook for 2018
All three of our funds have been blowing passive multi-asset funds out of the water based on volatility adjusted returns for five years...
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