Markets

Perhaps quantitative easing was inflationary after all

In the interests of complete openness...

The combination of central bank weakness and fiscal policy error is a toxic one

Signs point to the start of a bond bear market Since their peak on 4 August 2020, long duration Treasuries are down 40% in real terms....

At the time of writing, global equities are up around 17% in US dollars year to date. Sterling weakness has added a further 3 percentage...

Our ancestor who made the first stone tool, perhaps as long as three million years ago, set in motion one of the most enduring of...

There is little doubt that low interest rates have been causing savers and investors difficulties in recent years. In decades past, not...

This is the third in a series of four posts dedicated to the subject of financial market predictability. In this month’s letter, I look...

How credible is the message from central banks that they can and will bring down inflation?

There is a remarkably simple test for whether something has intrinsic value

Be careful what you wish for

There is a widespread misunderstanding about inflation-linked bonds, namely that they protect against inflation. They don't. At least not...

There is no bigger question for investors currently than where UK consumer price inflation is headed in the medium term.

As many will know from bitter experience, a crisis often has two stages. The first is the crisis itself, whether a natural disaster that...

Michael Burry, the doctor-turned-hedge fund manager who foresaw the bursting of both the tech and subprime bubbles, has just revealed...

This is the second in a series of four posts dedicated to active management, focussing on some of the key figures involved in the study...

The Magic of Fractional Reserve Banking

How does one value crypto's poster child?

Lazy advisers who put clients into bonds should face the music in court

There is no correct answer to this question - other than that before 1973, none of it! - as it is impossible to separate out effects of...

In a recent op-ed, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath noted that: “For the first time, in 60% of the global economy – including 97% of...

The University of Cambridge’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risks conducts research in three areas: risks associated with...

This post is the final of four in a mini-series on the subject of active management and the predictability of markets. The first three...

I feel very fortunate to have had the opportunity to live and work abroad for a number of years. Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore were not...