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Macro

'Macro' means 'large scale' or 'big picture'. Posts in the category relate to economics, monetary policy, politics, climate change, trends and cycles, industries and companies etc.

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8 Mar 2023

Where's My Cycle?

An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets

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6 Jan 2023

Do Not Let Your Comfortable Retirement Slip Away

Now is the time for a truly bold asset allocation

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25 Nov 2022

Inflation (Part 47)

Some thoughts on this most important of issues following participation in a Citywire debate

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27 Oct 2022

Wealth Managers May Need A Complete Rethink

Persistent high inflation will make a mockery of balanced and risk rated funds

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28 Sept 2022

Carnage

If you enjoy reading this blog, please leave a star rating on WealthTender. Thank you! The ramifications of the big fall in Gilts will be...

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26 Aug 2022

OK, But What Do The Patterns Actually Mean?

Patterns in financial markets relate to human behaviour, the business cycle, and longer inflation cycles

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8 Aug 2022

It's About Jobs, Stupid!

Will tighter monetary policy in the US induce a gentle easing in labour market pressures or something unpleasant?

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29 Jul 2022

The US Is Not In Recession...Yet

The definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth is flawed

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3 Feb 2023

Setting A Bad Example

The effort to improve financial literacy in this country itself needs to be improved

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14 Dec 2022

Doves In Hawk Clothing

When the time comes, will central banks prioritise employment or inflation?

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16 Nov 2022

Naughty Auntie

Irresponsible reporting about real wage growth by the BBC encourages public sector workers to strike

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20 Oct 2022

Citywire: Wealth Managers May Need A Complete Rethink

My latest piece, published in Citywire, takes aim at balanced and risk-rated funds

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1 Sept 2022

Time To Step Up

Until recently, central banks had been seen as heroes for the best part of four decades

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22 Aug 2022

A Statistical Appraisal Of Bond And Equity Behaviour

Bonds and equities exhibit fundamentally different patterns

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3 Aug 2022

Where Are We In The Cycle?

A reminder about what empirical research tells us about business cycle phases and asset class returns

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27 Jul 2022

Prediction Machines

It's easy to make predictions but making them useful is another thing all together

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19 Jan 2023

Auntie! No!

The PM should start with the BBC when it comes to improving maths standards

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2 Dec 2022

Vanguard Doubles Down

The passive fund behemoth refuses to consider possibility that inflation will remain high

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4 Nov 2022

Is Vanguard In Denial?

The manager of the huge passive balanced fund range is clearly conflicted

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18 Oct 2022

Risk Rated Funds Are Broken

We are now in an environment in which bonds are riskier than equities, spelling trouble for risk rated funds

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30 Aug 2022

Stability. Complacency. Mistake. Repeat.

Central banks were ill prepared for covid but then several decades of disinflation had made them and many others complacent

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12 Aug 2022

Schrödinger's Thermostat

Can the latest US jobs and inflation data suggest that the economy is heating up and cooling down at the same time?

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1 Aug 2022

Western Consumer Spending Is Looking Vulnerable

Consumer sentiment and confidence indicators in the US, Eurozone, and UK point to grim days ahead

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25 Jul 2022

Is Gold Still Gold?

An appraisal of the fundamental reasons for buying gold

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