Doves In Hawk Clothing
When the time comes, will central banks prioritise employment or inflation?
top of page
INVESTMENT BLOG
The Latest on Equities, Bonds, Economics, Behavioural Investing, Climate Change & More
Peter Elston
Nov 16, 20223 min read
Naughty Auntie
Irresponsible reporting about real wage growth by the BBC encourages public sector workers to strike
1010
Peter Elston
Sep 30, 20213 min read
When the Fun Stops...
How can young people be helped to reach this epiphany sooner?
200
Peter Elston
May 31, 20193 min read
Why I'm Most Negative on US
The last two equity bear markets - in 2001/2 and 2008/9 - saw rolling three year returns from global equities at their trough hit -45 and...
50
Peter Elston
Feb 1, 20198 min read
Is a Recession Imminent?
This month, I write about our funds’ current (tactical) asset allocation positioning in the context of my macro outlook and market views....
60
Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20193 min read
Advice for the Asset Allocator
I think I have one of the best jobs in the world: essentially, to predict the future – the future course of, for example, inflation and...
90
Peter Elston
Jan 1, 20197 min read
2019 Investment Outlook
From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. 2018 was looking...
30
Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20184 min read
Review and Outlook
Equity markets were generally strong in July, as investors appeared to shrug off fears of a global trade war. US and Eurozone equities...
20
Peter Elston
Mar 1, 20183 min read
Monthly Review and Outlook
February will be remembered for the sharp fall in equity markets across the world at the beginning of the month. Our view was at the time...
20
Peter Elston
Dec 1, 20174 min read
Macro and Markets Monthly
From an economic perspective, November was in many respects a repeat of October. On the whole, macro data supported our belief that...
20
Peter Elston
Jul 31, 20173 min read
How to Protect your Portfolio
My framework for thinking about asset allocation and thus portfolio protection is based around business cycle analysis. It is well...
20
Peter Elston
May 31, 20162 min read
Inflation Watch
Core inflation rates in the developed world have been fairly stable in recent months at around the 1.3% per annum level (see Chart 1)....
40
Where's My Cycle?
An update on where I think we are in the business cycle with respect to growth, inflation and markets
Correlation or causation?
Data is too often presented in an unfair, unclear and misleading way
Dear John
Liontrust's John Husselbee's arguments in support of balanced funds are lame
bottom of page