Fund Performance Following the Brexit Vote

Updated: May 18

Since the referendum, our funds have slipped down the peer group rankings. This does not mean that their absolute performance has been particularly poor, just that the funds have underperformed their respective peer groups in recent weeks. While many will understand that poor short-term performance relative to peers – as well as in absolute terms – may happen from time to time, there may be others who are not so comfortable. The following will I hope provide reassurance.

"The harsh reality of this however means having to accept the odd period of poor short-term performance"

Our funds are diversified in that they are spread across equities, bonds, and specialist assets. However, we are value investors and so are trying to capture the medium- to long-term price appreciation of financial assets that results from their value being under-appreciated. This is why we have a mid-cap focus in the UK – investors tend not to fully understand the scope for smaller companies to grow, so their share prices as a group tend to perform better.


As value investors we are also seeking to avoid financial assets whose value we think is being over-appreciated. This is why we do not hold developed world government bonds, which even before recent events were expensive – buy the 30-year inflation Gilt today and hold it to maturity and you are certain to lose a third of your real capital at today’s rates.


While we continue to have absolute confidence in our positions with respect to mid-caps focus and government bonds, both have hurt our peer-relative performance over the last 2-3 weeks. It should also be noted that we have other positions that have performed well or held up over the same period.


Many of our competitor funds own expensive Gilts or US Treasuries and avoid under-appreciated smaller companies. Such positioning will naturally – and indeed did – aid short-term performance but it will also very likely lower their longer-term returns. We think it is longer-term performance that is more important. In fact, given increasing longevity, paucity of value in bond markets, as well as low growth generally, we think it is more important than ever to focus on longer-term performance. The harsh reality of this however means having to accept the odd period of poor short-term performance, whether in absolute terms or relative to peers.


Our mid cap focus in the UK has been the major cause of the recent poor short-term fund performance in relation to our respective peer groups. However, we are very careful about what we buy, placing great importance on balance sheet strength and profitability. This we believe will help to produce good performance over time in relation to both mid-cap and large-cap indices and thus counter the impact of periods such as the last few weeks when mid-caps fell off sharply. Furthermore, we don’t own too many mid-caps, so we know them extremely well. Here are a couple of examples.


Kier Group is a conservatively managed vertically integrated construction and services company. Despite the fact that 85% of revenues in its two largest divisions are already covered by existing orders out to June 2017, the shares have been weak and now yield 7%. The dividend is well covered by earnings and supported by a strong balance sheet. Recent acquisitions of May Gurney and Mouchel provide considerable scope for further expansion, as cross-group revenue synergies are explored. Meanwhile, the company should also benefit from rising infrastructure spend which has cross-political party support. Specifically, the Highways Agency’s £17bn ring-fenced budget for its Road Investment Strategy and the National Infrastructure Commission’s £100bn budget out to 2020 provide tailwinds.


Victrex manufactures polyether ether ketone (PEEK), a high performance polymer that possesses unique qualities, such as being ultra-lightweight, extremely strong, resistant to chemicals and extreme temperatures, and is also electrically conductive. The company has dominant market positions and is frequently finding new uses for PEEK, due to its constant drive for innovation and ongoing collaborative work with its customers. Over 90% of Victrex’s revenues are from outside the UK, therefore it is a big beneficiary of sterling weakness. The shares yield over 3% and the dividend has grown by over 13% p.a. over the last 10 years. The company has net cash on the balance sheet and has stated that it intends to return surplus cash back to shareholders by means of special dividends.


Elsewhere in the funds, while we have some currency-hedged overseas equities funds, most are unhedged so have performed well as a result of the weakness in the pound. As for our fixed income funds, their prices have generally remained stable, though they have not of course performed nearly as well as safe haven bonds.


Of interest we think is the performance of some of our specialist assets. As a reminder, these on the whole are investment trusts that invest in income generating assets such as aircraft, property, medical equipment, loans, mortgages, and infrastructure. Again, we are very careful what we buy and, because we don’t own too many of them, we monitor them closely. We are looking for income streams that are stable and index-linked. We are looking for decent yields. These attributes have served some of our specialist assets holdings particularly well in recent weeks. Here is one example.


Primary Health Properties is a REIT invested in predominantly UK based purpose built modern GP surgeries and medical centres. It has a very secure tenant (NHS plus ancillary services), a visible and growing income stream, and resides in a property sector that requires substantial increases in investment. The attractions of such low volatility tangible value are thus clear. The investment pays us a fully covered and growing dividend yield of 4.6%. At the time of writing (5th July) the shares are trading where they were prior to the referendum vote and have displayed none of the stresses experienced elsewhere in the property sector.


To conclude, we continue to have complete confidence in our process and in the capacity of our funds to generate value over the longer term. We place a great deal of importance on the quality of businesses we own and making sure that third party managers we engage have a similar mindset.


Published in Investment Letter, July 2016





The views expressed in this communication are those of Peter Elston at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. They do not constitute investment advice and whilst all reasonable efforts have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this communication, the reliability, completeness or accuracy of the content cannot be guaranteed. This communication provides information for professional use only and should not be relied upon by retail investors as the sole basis for investment.

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