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Markets

Posts in this category are about financial markets such as bonds, equities, commodities, alternatives etc.

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31 Jul 2019

Active Management and the Predictability of Markets Redux: Eugene Fama

According to Moody’s, total assets in passive funds in the US will overtake those in actively managed funds in 2021. In light of this...

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30 Apr 2019

This Time it is Different, Again

A lot of attention in the media recently has been devoted to the inversion of the yield curve in the US in late March. There is one main...

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1 Feb 2019

Was 2018 the Start of the Next Bear Market?

2018 was looking all fine and dandy up until the beginning of October. Equity markets, though having been driven by a small number of...

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30 Sept 2018

Reducing Equity Targets

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Last year we...

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30 Jun 2018

Review and Outlook

June saw equity markets around the world give back some of the gains made in April and May. The trigger for these falls appeared to be...

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1 Feb 2018

My Framework for Tactical Asset Allocation

My framework for tactical asset allocation is based on business cycle analysis and the documented findings that asset classes tend to...

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31 Jul 2017

Wealth Creation from US Equities Since 1926

I was alerted by an article in the Evening Standard to an interesting research paper entitled Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills? The...

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31 May 2017

Beware Dividend Concentration Among UK Large Caps

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. Much has been...

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30 Jun 2019

A Word in Your Ear

For such a simple word, risk is quite hard to define. It is generally agreed that it pertains to danger of some sort, but that is where...

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31 Mar 2019

A Diversified Approach to Income Can Pay Dividends

Income continues to be the principal concern for many investors in the UK - both in the run-up to and throughout retirement. Reinvested...

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1 Jan 2019

2019 Investment Outlook

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. 2018 was looking...

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31 Aug 2018

Our Valuation Methodology Applied to US Equities

In June, we moved to a zero weight in US equities across all our funds. This is obviously a very high conviction position given that the...

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31 May 2018

Review and Outlook

The month of May saw equities on the whole continuing to recover from their February and March declines as economic data remained broadly...

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1 Nov 2017

Three Lessons from Value Investing

This is my fourth and final piece on value investing. Next year’s four will be on the topic of behavioural investing. In light of Richard...

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31 Jul 2017

How to Protect your Portfolio

My framework for thinking about asset allocation and thus portfolio protection is based around business cycle analysis. It is well...

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1 Mar 2017

Why we are Focusing on Good Value UK Mid-Caps

I must warn readers upfront that we at Seneca are value investors, and are thus naturally sceptical about growth investing in its...

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31 May 2019

Why I'm Most Negative on US

The last two equity bear markets - in 2001/2 and 2008/9 - saw rolling three year returns from global equities at their trough hit -45 and...

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1 Mar 2019

Gold Is Not What You Think It Is

The term “gold bug” has been popularised in recent decades as a reference to ardent fans of gold investment. The almost imperceptible...

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1 Nov 2018

Review and Outlook

October was clearly a bad month for equity markets around the world, with the MSCI AC World index falling 6.9% in local currency terms....

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31 Jul 2018

Review and Outlook

Equity markets were generally strong in July, as investors appeared to shrug off fears of a global trade war. US and Eurozone equities...

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31 Mar 2018

A Timely Reminder

As the current global business cycle matures, I thought it might be an opportune moment to revisit one of the basic but counterintuitive...

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31 Aug 2017

The Case for UK Growth

In his 1992 Chairman’s Letter, Warren Buffett wrote that the investment approaches ‘value’ and ‘growth’ are “joined at the hip”. In many...

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30 Jun 2017

Preparing for the Next Downturn

From Seneca Investment Managers' public marketing material. Seneca is now part of Momentum Global Investment Management. The whole point...

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1 Mar 2017

Preparing for the Impending End of the Bond Bull Market

I know I bang on about this, but value investing is about so much more than buying low price-to-earnings or low price-to-book stocks....

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